Coming off the recession era bust, in 2012 and 2013 we had roughly a 20% combined rate of appreciation.  In May I reported that although prices continued to appreciate, the rate of appreciation was slowing.  I further postulated that for 2014 I anticipated an appreciation rate of 5-7%.  If June is indicative of the remainder of the year, then we are at that point.

Consider the following: (i) there were 5.3% less homes for sale in June than the same time last year; (ii) there were 5.8% less new listings; (iii) closed sales increased 8.4%; and (iv) pending sales, which is a barometer of sales over the next 2 months, increased 31.2%. When prices are increasing only 5%, in the face of diminishing supply, there is no reason to anticipate major price appreciation.  The facts don’t support it.  Rather, when coupled with competition from new homes, and a jobless recovery, it is more probable that we will see prices increase in the 5% annual range.  This is the general historical rate of appreciation. Consequently, this is as likely as secure a time to buy or sell as we are apt to see over the next few years.

1. Homes for Sale, Sold, Pended & New Listings:              Neutral

• Homes for Sale: 572 homes; down 9.5% from last month, up 5.3% from last year.
• Homes Listed:  162 homes; down 15.2% from last month, down 5.8% from last year.
• Homes Closed:  181 homes; down 15% from last month, up 8.4% from last year.
• Homes Placed Under Contract: 206 homes; 0% from last month, up 31.2% from last year.

2. Average Sold Price per Square Foot:               Neutral

• Average Sold Price:     $135 per square foot; up 5.6% from last month, up 4.8% from last year.

3. Average Days on Market:                  Falling

• Days on Market:  69 days; down 8% from last month, down 8% from last year.

4. Sold/List Price Ratio:          Steady

• Sold/Original List Price %:
  92%; down 0% from last month, down 1.1% from last year.
• Sold/Final List Price %:
  95%; down 0% from last month, 0% from last year.

5. Average Active List Price:  $292,000; up 2.5% from last month, up 5.4% from last year

   Average Active List Price : Appreciating
   Average Sold Price: Neutral
   Median Sold Price: Neutral

• Average Sold Price:  $218,000; up 12.4% from last month, up 4.8% from last year.
• Median Sold Price:  $183,000; up 8.3% from last month, up 4.6% from last year.

6. Inventory Based on Closed Sales:    Seller’s Market
   Inventory Based on Pended Sales:  Seller’s Market

• Inventory based on Closed Sales:  3.2 months; up 6.1% from last month, down 3.1% from last year.
• Inventory based on Pended Sales:  2.8 months; down 9.8% from last month, down 20.2% from last year.