Rising rates and economic uncertainty sow doubts on the housing market. But if you’ve been watching the headlines, you get the impression there is no buyer demand, that prices are coming down. That is not the case in Sarasota County. Remember, local markets behave differently. We continue to have tremendous demand, including heavy traffic at … Continue reading Inventory and prices steady as mortgage rates fall.
2023 Home Sales Forecast
How is it that median sold prices seem to be holding, not going down? The short answer is that the supply of homes for sale, although increasing due to more buyers marginalized from higher interest rates, is still not able to keep pace with demand. Sold prices are a 2-month lagging indicator, reflecting contracts signed … Continue reading 2023 Home Sales Forecast
Prices have plateaued
As I gear up for my 2023 Sarasota County housing market forecast, this month my focus is on active listings, which are a forward looking indicator on how prices are trending. In October, the year over year median active list price for single family resales was unchanged at $599,000. Approximately 40% of all active listings … Continue reading Prices have plateaued
Where are prices heading?
Where are prices heading? Historically, less people list in November and December. With mortgage rates hovering at 7% and recovery from Ian just getting underway, I expect fewer sales. Inventory will continue its slow ascent as prices weaken. It remains a seller’s market – a slight advantage. Forward looking indicators reflect a market more favorable … Continue reading Where are prices heading?
Critical shortage of homes not changing any time soon.
Sarasota County continues to have a critical shortage of homes for sale, and it does not appear to be changing any time soon. Notwithstanding the spike in mortgage rates to 6.02% last week, the highest since the financial crisis of 2008, fewer homes are for sale, resulting in less sold homes. Not only are more … Continue reading Critical shortage of homes not changing any time soon.
Home sales, interest rates and prices.
Tracking the number of mortgage applications for purchase (“MAFP”) is a strong barometer of trending sales. When MAFP increase, home sales rise. Conversely, a downturn in MAFP means less homes selling. In July, the Mortgage Bankers Association (“MBA”) reported MAFP fell to their lowest level in 22 years and continued to fall 1.4% in the … Continue reading Home sales, interest rates and prices.
The tide has begun to turn.
The Sarasota housing market is cooling. It is still a strong seller’s market, but it has lost its effervescence. The tide has begun to turn. There are fewer showings and days of multiple offers are winding down. A combination of rising interest rates (currently 5-6%), 43% more homes for sale and 12% less homes sold … Continue reading The tide has begun to turn.
A Housing Bubble? No. Not This Time.
It has been a turbulent time for home sales. An inventory crisis has wrought meteoric home price growth. We now face rising mortgage rates, a widening affordability gap, super-charged inflation, tumultuous geopolitical events affecting the global supply chain, and a severe societal and cultural schism. It’s natural to think the run-up in home prices … Continue reading A Housing Bubble? No. Not This Time.
Has the housing market peaked?
Last week I attended a housing conference. The guest economist posited that inflation may have peaked. If inflation has peaked, what does that portend for home prices in Sarasota County? In April, consumer prices rose 8.3% from a year ago, less than March’s 8.5%. Although a one (1) month, 0.2% reduction does not create a … Continue reading Has the housing market peaked?
Will home prices continue to go up or are we facing a housing bubble?
We currently have a 0.6-month supply of homes for sale. Basically, a tad over 2 weeks. It has essentially been that way since January 2021, when briefly there was a 1.6-month supply, itself historically low. There is no evidence that this is changing. Ergo: prices will continue to march higher. The median sold price for … Continue reading Will home prices continue to go up or are we facing a housing bubble?