SARASOTA COUNTY:

The General Housing Market for the Average Joe.

Home & Condo Sales Report for June 2019

One of today’s lead off, front page stories in the Herald-Tribune was titled “High-end home sales strong, again”, with the luxury market defined at $3 million plus.  That’s good, because rising tides should raise most ships, business investment, jobs, community amenities, infrastructure, and with it the value of your home and mine.  But it can take time, and it can ebb and flow.  So, what is happening in the general housing market for those of us under $3 million, the “Average Joe?

Since the end of last year, I have projected a shift in the general housing market for Sarasota County.  We are not immune from the continuing trade war with China, a weak European economy, and growing political and cultural polarization in the US.  Nevertheless, our economy is strong, unemployment is low, taxes reduced, businesses eased from regulation strangulation, the stock market is reaching new highs, low inflation, and the Federal Reserve is poised to lower rates further, which will only benefit mortgage rates, increasing home remodeling and home sales – principal drivers of our local economy.

In the general housing market, all indices have been pointing to modest appreciation in accordance with historical norms of 3 – 5%, but not the accelerated rates we have experienced since 2012.  If sellers failed to recognize this shift, then a tug of war of sorts would arise, wherein it would take longer, on average, to sell a home, the spread between final sold price and original list price would widen, and inventory would increase with the potential for stagnant pricing.  There appears to be a growing body of evidence for this.

Asking prices and sold prices are in a state of flux.  In June, the median sold price for single family homes and condos was neutral, with modest appreciation:  $290,000 for single family homes, up 2.8% compared to last year; $231,000 for condos, up 4.5% compared to last year.  Whereas, the average sold price for single family homes and condos depreciated:  $397,000 for single family homes, down 4.8% compared to last year; $335,000 for condos, down 11.8% compared to last year.

Similarly, the ratio between sold price and original list price is falling: single family homes are selling at 89% of original list price; condos at 90%.  Customarily it has hovered at 92% to 93%.  The result is that on the MLS price reductions are outpacing new listings every day.  What heretofore had taken 60 – 75 days to sell a home or condo, is now taking 90 days.

Notwithstanding the foregoing, pending sales and closings for single family homes were steady, over 800 homes sold in June, up 1.9% compared to last year.  Pending sales for condos were neutral at 232 units pending in June, up 0.9%; although there were only 227 closed condos, down 12% compared to last year.

All in all, barring unforeseen events, we should settle into a neutral market, with modest and sustainable appreciation, provided, Sellers have realistic expectations, in alignment with where the market is, rather than where one wishes it to be.

Have a safe and wonderful summer.

Single Family Homes

June 2019

• For Sale is Neutral @ 2,639 units: Down 7.1% compared to prior month (May 2019); Down 0.3% compared to prior year (May 2018).
• New Listings is Falling @ 768 units: Down 10.2% compared to last month; Down 11% compared to prior year.
• Closed is Neutral @ 817 units: Down 12.4% compared to last month; Up 1.9% compared to last year.
• Pending is Neutral @ 803 units: Down 1.4% compared to last month; Up 1.9% as compared to last year.
• Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales is Neutral @ 3.2 months: Up 6.6% compared to last month; Down 3% compared to last year.
• Average Sold Price per Square Foot is Depreciating @ $201/sq. ft: Down 3.8% compared to last month; Down 2.9% compared to last year.
• Median Sold Price is Neutral @ $290,000: Down 4.9% as compared to last month; Up 2.8% compared to last year.
• Average Sold Price is Depreciating @ $397,000: Down 3.6% compared to last month; Down 4.8 compared to last year.
• Average For Sale Price is Neutral @ $766,000: Down 0.5% compared to last month; Down 0.8% compared to last year.
• Average Days on Market is Rising – 90 days: Up 7.1% compared to last month; Up 16.9% compared to last year.
• Sold/Original List Price Ratio is Falling @ 89%: Down 3.3% compared to last month; Down 2.2% compared to last year.

Condominiums

June 2019

• For Sale is Neutral @ 1,227 unit: Down 9.1% compared to last month (May 2019); Up 13.8% compared to prior year (May 2018).
• New Listings is Falling @ 234 units: Down 14.9% compared to last month; Down 4.5% compared to last year.
• Closed is Falling @ 227 units: Down 25.3% compared to last month; Down 12% compared to last year.
• Pending Sales is Neutral @ 232 units: Down 9.3% compared to last month; Up 0.9% compared to last year.
• Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales is Rising @ 5.4 months: Up 22.5% compared to last month; Up 28.7% compared to last year.
• Average Sold Price per Square Foot is Depreciating @ $257/sq. ft: Down 15.7% compared to last month; Down 9.5% compared to last year.
• Median Sold Price is Neutral @ $231,000: Down 5.7% compared to last month; Up 4.5% compared to last year.
• Average Sold Price is Depreciating @ $335,000; Down 19.9% compared to last month; Down 11.8% compared to last year.
• Average For Sale Price is Appreciating @ $617,000: Up 1.6% compared to last month; Up 4% compared to last year.
• Average Days on Market is Steady @ 93 days: Down 7.9% compared to prior month; Up 5.7% compared to last year.
• Sold/Original List Price Ratio is Falling @ 90%: Down 1.1% compared to prior month; Down 1.1% compared to last year.