The Rob Report

By:  Robert Goldman

Published: February 15, 2020

 The impact of the coronavirus on the housing market

 &

Single Family & Condo Sales Report

Inventory low, sales up, sold prices neutral  

SARASOTA COUNTY

February 2020

What impact will the Covid-19 coronavirus have on the housing market?  The next few weeks will be telling about the trajectory of the virus.  If it spreads quickly, it will change behaviors.  In many ways, it already has, as large public gatherings for sports, cultural and recreational events, religious assemblages and schools are being cancelled.  During this period of uncertainty, the stock market correction, the decline of the 10-year yield (although that will translate into lower mortgage rates), the susceptibility of jobless claims from a global growth slowdown limiting travel and consumption, and containment policies implemented in America may, initially, slow sales.  Already there are reports that some snowbirds are planning to return home earlier than Easter, the traditional end of the “in-season”.  I have heard from a couple of Sellers who have considered temporarily putting off their plans to sell their home.  Similarly, some Buyers will choose to insulate themselves and not look at homes.  But it will be short-lived.  By Friday of this past week, government and private industry began to coalesce to forge relief. Although the development and production of immunity vaccines will not be immediate, as containment policies achieve positive and measurable results, emotions will ease.  As we learn, adapt and become accustomed to the precautions to take, the initial panic from the fear of uncertainty will subside.  The risks controlled, the public’s actions and reactions will shift to calm, rational action and reaction.  Confidence will rise, market volatility will stabilize, life and business cycles reset.

The fact is we all need a place to call home.  Life cycles change, requiring we move from or to a new home.  Whereas, the spread of the coronavirus is through public interaction, buying a home is a private affair.  Showing appointments are by appointment only, the Realtor and the Buyer.  They are not a place where large public gatherings occur.  As an industry, Realtors and their affiliated service providers are already following guidelines issued by the CDC and local health officials as they relate to protecting Buyers, Sellers, and themselves, thereby, minimizing the risks.

In February, inventory of homes for sale in Sarasota County remained low at  4.3 months.  The number of homes for sale was  down, the number of sold and under contract listings was up, while sold prices were neutral with moderate appreciation.  The number of for sale listings was down 25.9% from last year.  The number of sold listings increased 12.4% and the number of under contract listings was up 29.6%.  The median sold price was $278,000, up 4.9% compared to last year.  So, February ended in lockstep with what we have experienced for more than a year, low inventory and neutral to modest appreciation.

Single Family & Condos

• Homes for Sale: 4,369 (down 1.1% vs. last month; down 25.9% vs. last year).
• Sold Homes: 1024 (up 8.7% vs. last month; up 12.4% vs. last year).
• Under Contract: 1,557 (up 13.8% vs. last month; up 29.6% vs. last year).
• Median Sold Price: $278,000 (down 1.4% vs. last month; up 4.9% vs. last year).
• Average Sold Price: $418,000 (down 2.1% vs. last month; up 9.1% vs. last year).
• Average Sold Price/Square Foot: $237 (up 2.1% vs. last month; up 10.2% vs. last year).
• Average Days on Market – Falling: 75 days (up 2.7% vs. last month; down 15.7% vs. last year).
• Months of Inventory: 3 (down 8.5% vs. last month; down 34% vs. last year).