SARASOTA COUNTY:

Unit Sales Strong.  Low Inventory.  Prices Sluggish.

Home & Condo Sales Report for the month of July 2019

July was a strong month for pending sales and closings in Sarasota County.  782 single family homes went under contract in July, an increase of 17.6% from the 665 pended sales in July 2018.  Similarly, 764 homes closed, up 8.8% from the 702 closings in July 2018, leaving 2,435 homes available for sale at the end of July 2019, 2.4% less than the 2,639 homes for sale in June.  As a result, inventory levels based on closed and pending sales remain low, a 3.1- month supply based on closed sales, a 3.2-month supply based on pended sales.  Low supply, which we continue to have, reduces a buyer’s choices.  Less choice typically increases prices.  However, that is not what is happening.  The average sold price per square foot is showing signs of weakness, while median and average sold prices are steady.  I find that the average sold price per square foot is a more normalized indicator on the direction of property values, as distinguished from median sold and average sold prices which can be skewed by any outlying mix of high and/or entry level properties.  In July 2019, the average sold price per square foot was $198.  That’s 1% less than June, and 3.8% less than the first six months of the year.  It bears noting that the average sold price per square foot has gone down every month since April of this year.  In April it was $211/sq. ft., May $209/sq. ft., and June $200/sq. ft.

For condos the average sold price per square foot was $265,000 in July.  Although it reflects a 3.1% bump over June 2019, it is down 8.9% from July 2018; and as compared to the first 6 months of  this year January – June 2019 it is down 10.5%, in the aggregate $292,000.  Accordingly, there appears to be some downward pressure on prices, while inventory levels based on closed sales is hovering in the 5-month supply range.

The US announced last week that it would impose an additional 10% tariff on $300 billion in untaxed imports, and China responded by letting the renminbi (Chinese yuan) fall.  In the wake of what now seems to be a certain escalating trade war, the stock market dropped sharply this week, although it sprung back today (Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at 26,378.19, up 1.43%, on 8/8/2019).  World-wide economic growth is uncertain, particularly in Europe where recession is a 50/50 bet. Due to deregulation and tax reform the US has fared better, with strong job growth (although it is showing signs of easing) and rising wages.  However, GDP has fallen to 2% from 3%, and the Fed, to buttress an economy in a state of flux cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points, with full expectation of a further rate cut in September.  Lower mortgage interest rates are an almost 100% certainty.  For Florida, which depends upon its feeder markets up North, lower interest rates should support continued sales and slow-moving home price growth.

Single Family Homes

For the month of July 2019

• For Sale Listings are Falling @ 2,435 units: Down 7.7 compared to prior month (June 2019); Down 2.4% compared to prior year (June 2018).
• New Listings are Rising @ 787 units: Up 2.2% compared to last month; Up 6.8% compared to prior year.
• Closed Sales are Steady @ 764 units: Down 6.9% compared to last month; Up 8.8% compared to last year.
• Pending Sales are Rising @ 782 units: Up 5.4% compared to last month; Up 17.6% as compared to last year.
• Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales is Steady @ 3.2 months: Unchanged compared to last month; Down 11.6% compared to last year.
• Average Sold Price per Square Foot is Depreciating @ $198/sq. ft. (Based on 6 month trend): Down 2.5% based on 6 month trend; Down 1% compared to last month; Up 8.2% compared to last year.
• Median Sold Price is Steady @ $290,000: Unchanged compared to last month; Up 2.8% compared to last year.
• Average Sold Price is Steady @ $390,000: Down 1.5% compared to last month; Up 9.9% compared to last year.
• Average For Sale Price is Steady @ $766,000: Unchanged compared to last month; Down 1.9% compared to last year.
• Average Days on Market is Falling – 77 days: Down 13.5.% compared to last month; Up 1.3% compared to last year.
• Sold/Original List Price Ratio is Rising @ 92%: Up 3.4% compared to last month; Unchanged compared to last year.

Condominiums

For the month of July 2019

• For Sale Listings are Neutral @ 1,138 units: Down 7.3% compared to last month (June 2019); Up 12.2% compared to prior year (June 2018).
• New Listings are Falling @ 222 units: Down 5.5% compared to last month; Down 10.5% compared to last year.
• Closed Sales are Falling @ 202 units: Down 11% compared to last month; Down 9% compared to last year.
• Pending Sales are Falling @ 191 units: Down 15.1% compared to last month; Down 1.5% compared to last year.
• Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales is Neutral @ 5.6 months: Up 3.7% compared to last month; Up 21.9% compared to last year.
• Average Sold Price per Square Foot is Steady @ $265/sq. ft: Up 3.1% compared to last month; Down 8.9% compared to last year.
• Median Sold Price is Depreciating @ $214,000: Down 7.4% compared to last month; Down 6.1% compared to last year.
• Average Sold Price is Neutral @ $351,000; Up 4.8% compared to last month; Down 8.8% compared to last year.
• Average For Sale Price is Appreciating @ $626,000: Up 1.5% compared to last month; Up 3.6% compared to last year.
• Average Days on Market is Steady @ 92 days: Down 1.1% compared to prior month; Up 9.5% compared to last year.
• Sold/Original List Price Ratio is Steady @ 90%: Unchanged compared to prior month; Down 3.2% compared to last year.