The Sarasota housing market is cooling. It is still a strong seller’s market, but it has lost its effervescence. The tide has begun to turn. There are fewer showings and days of multiple offers are winding down.

A combination of rising interest rates (currently 5-6%), 43% more homes for sale and 12% less homes sold in June than 1 year ago has increased inventory to a 1.4 month supply. It has been 18 months since the supply of homes, based on closed sales, exceeded 1 month. The supply of homes has been so low for so long that it will take time to reach a more balanced market. But that day will come. In the interim it remains a strong, albeit cooling seller’s market.

In June, the median sold price of existing single family homes was $500,000, 2% more than May, and 24% higher than 1 year ago. The median sold price is a lagging indicator of home sales, having gone under contract 2 months ago. A more reliable predicate of how the housing market is trending is the average list price. The average list price dropped 16% in June compared to May 2022, and 7% from June 2021. That does not occur without price resistance from buyers.

Days on market (17 days) and sold to list price ratio (98%) have been relatively stagnant. I will carefully watch these metrics. If days on the market increase and list price ratios decrease, it will be further evidence that buyers are pushing back.

As always, properly positioning your home for sale in a transitioning market has never been more important. The housing market remains strong. Sellers have had a historic 2-year run with a 50% rise in home values. But a confluence of factors — political, inflationary, and cultural — has eroded consumer confidence. Do not be surprised if sometime within the next year we experience a 15% housing correction. Emphasis is on ”housing correction” as distinguished from “housing bubble.”