In Sarasota County, according to Trendgraphix, selling prices and the number of sold homes have receded, in search of a bottom. In August, the median sold price for existing single-family homes was $469,000. Although up 3.8% from $452,000 in July, it remained down 9.6% from one year ago when it was $519,000.  There were 500 sales last month, 3.8% less than July’s 520 sold homes, and virtually unchanged from the 521 homes sold last year.

Pended data is invaluable in providing insight into how future sales are trending.  Altos Research reported that in Sarasota County, the median list price of last week’s single-family pended homes was $475,000.  The median list price of all pended homes was $484,900. A 2% spread between all pended sales and those that went pended last week. 

The strength of the housing market was at a high point in March 2022, when only 13.23% of all homes had price reductions. 33% is the historical average. As the market softened, by May of this year price reductions rose to a high of 57.3%. But since the high-water mark of May, every week has seen fewer list price decreases than the prior week.  Last week, 49% of all listings had price decreases, trending to the low to mid 40% reasonably stable range.     

Last month I urged buyers to come off the bench before prices begin to rise; that inventory was at 2019 highs, sales sluggish, prices at 3-year lows, nearing a floor in prices; that the CPI, at 2.5%, is getting close to the Fed’s 2% target; that unemployment, at 4.2%, is close to its 4.5% target; that the yield on the 10-year Treasury is moving lower, improving mortgage spreads in advance of the Fed’s September 16/17 anticipated ¼ – ½  point rate cut; that mortgage rates are heading south, soon breaking below 6%.

Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal reported that according to Credible data gathered from 500 US lenders, the median rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 5.990%. Improving mortgage rates will improve sales and move prices higher.  But it won’t be immediate. There are few things more personal and safeguarded than your home, where you live. Whether you’re a seller or a buyer, or a seller who is also buying, it takes time to get emotionally and physically ready for a move. Changing conditions, and conditions are changing, are impactful. Prepare for your move now.  Sharpen your axe.