Sarasota County  Normalizing home sales: the prescription. Real estate appreciation is driven by a confluence of factors: supply and demand, demographics, low mortgage rates, location, and property type. In an ideal market, home appreciation and inflation should bare a reasonable nexus. It is a generally accepted industry standard that 4-6 months of inventory is considered … Continue reading Normalizing home sales: the prescription.

Interest rates are going up … and that’s a good thing. The Federal Reserve has signaled a change in its guidance.  It is likely to taper bond-buying and move up its timetable for raising rates.  I have never accepted the Federal Reserve’s position that inflation is “transitory”.   For months I have advanced on these pages … Continue reading Interest rates are going up … and that’s a good thing.

The month of September, fall is in the air, Labor Day, kids go back to school, snowbirds making plans, we begin to assess, plan for the year ahead.  We tend to plan now so that we are settled in for the holidays. Remembering family trips, the kids in the car, 5 minutes out and the … Continue reading Are we there yet?

“Should I stay or should I go?” The Clash, 1981 What should you be doing right now?  If you are or have been considering selling your home, prices have never been higher.  Even if your home is tired or has deferred maintenance, this is the time to move and sell.  Many buyers are prepared to … Continue reading Should I stay or should I go?

The Fed is buying the stock market and housing market to prop up the economy.  Housing doesn’t need it.   On this tract, home values will continue to appreciate at unhealthy levels.  You may ask, “Why is this a bad thing, my home’s value is going up”?  Because it will get to the point where the … Continue reading Calling on the Federal Reserve: Stop Purchasing Mortgage Backed Securities

AN INCREASE IN MORTGAGE RATES WOULD BE A GOOD THING. Comparing this past month to May of 2020 is not useful.  2020 was an anomaly.  However, comparing May 2021 to May 2019 is quite telling.  Last month the median sold price of single-family homes and condos rose approximately 30% from May 2019.  See tables below. … Continue reading Hot Hot Hot … is our market!

No Housing Bubble Exacerbated by a labor shortage and rapidly increasing cost of building materials, builders in new communities from Wellen Park to Lakewood Ranch are releasing lots in small numbers and requiring sealed bids from homebuyers without knowing what the final building cost will be. It pushes frustrated new homebuyers to turn to resales, … Continue reading No Housing Bubble

As I have postulated in prior commentaries, the combination of demographics (Baby Boomers, Gen X and Millennials), historically low interest rates, the hyperbolic reaction from buyers due to pent up demand from the lockdown, and the paucity of sellers uncomfortable listing their homes due to mixed messaging, has led to home price inflation and bidding … Continue reading Hyper home price inflation, but the pace will taper off.

I fully expect that by the 3rd quarter of this year we will be in an all-in growth mode.   And then inflation will begin to rise.  My hope for housing is that the 10-year yield will be at least 2% by year’s end.  We do not need hyper-low mortgage interest rates.  This is not a … Continue reading Home prices too hot, mortgage rates too low.

Published February 18, 2021 As most of you know, I’ve been a real estate attorney for over 40 years, a Realtor for the past 10.  I find I am using every skill set I have acquired in my lifetime, in navigating the current housing market frenzy. The temptation to sell a home on your own … Continue reading How to navigate this exuberant housing market from all perspectives.