Spring 2024 marked a turning point for Sarasota County’s existing single-family market. After three years of double-digit appreciation, rising insurance costs and property taxes eroded the area’s price advantage. Combined with mortgage rates averaging 6.75% (and topping 7% at times), homes stayed on the market longer and prices fell roughly 15%.

Prices Have Stabilized:
May saw the cycle low at $450,000 median sold price and $323 per square foot. Since then (June–August), prices have inched back up to $458,000 median and $338 per square foot.

Forward-Looking Signals:
Altos Research reports the gap between median list prices and median pending prices has narrowed across all but the top luxury tier—an indicator of stabilizing demand.

Macro Context:
Last week’s job revisions showed 911,000 fewer U.S. jobs added April 2024–March 2025 than initially reported. With unemployment at 4.2% (approaching the Fed’s 4.5% “comfort” zone), the 10-year Treasury yield has eased to 4.04% and the 30-year conforming mortgage rate to 6.32%. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates this week.

Outlook:
If rates trend toward or below 6% by year-end, Sarasota County should see stronger buyer demand, firmer prices, and increased transaction volume.