Published June 17, 2024

How popular is Sarasota County? Peer into the April numbers from Visit Sarasota:

1. Visitors were 120,800 compared to 136,800 in 2023.
2. Visitor direct expenditures were $174,210,500 compared to $177,372,100 in 2023.
3. Lodging occupancy was 66.9%  compared to 73.9% in 2023.
4. Lodging average room rate was $297.37 compared to $293.33 in 2023.
5. There were 314,400 room nights sold compared to 332,400 in 2023.

Visits to Sarasota are down. Slightly. Nevertheless, it does beg the question. Why?  Are divisive politics, a culture clash, insurance and the rising costs of living having a deleterious effect? I don’t have the answers.  Although I know they are all a factor.

Slower growth and lower inflation caused the yield on the 10-year Treasury to slip to 4.22% last week. Mortgage rates held steady in a 7% range. If the unemployment rate continues to rise, albeit slowly, and as growth and inflation slows, the 10-year yield will go lower and mortgage rates could test the 6.5% range.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US economy added 272,000 jobs in May. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to 4% (6.6 million unemployed) from 3.7% (6.1 million unemployed) last year.  Yearly wage growth and consumer prices, heading lower, are still too high, 4.1% wage growth, 3.4% consumer price growth.

Amongst other data prints, the Fed wants unemployment to break towards 4.5%, wage growth and consumer prices to fall under 3%. Until then, I expect the housing market in Sarasota County will soften, less sales and moderately lower prices.  Month over month, in May, existing homes for sale were down 1.8%, sold homes down 1.9%, and median sold price down 4.3% to $517,000.

Prices. It is noteworthy that the median sold price in May was down 4.3% from April. It remains 4.2% higher than one-year ago. Accordingly, this is not a story about a market collapse, but a market adjustment. It emphasizes the unaltering imperative of strategically pricing your home to current market conditions, adjusted weekly to obtain the highest possible price.