In Sarasota County, the resale market for single-family homes continues to show signs of softening. A balanced housing market typically has about four months of inventory; currently, we stand at 5.2 months—favoring buyers.
Home prices have declined approximately 13% year-over-year. Many sellers still have inflated expectations of their home's value, which has led to an unusually high rate of price reductions. As of the week ending June 6, 57% of all active (unsold) listings have had price cuts—compared to the more typical one-third.
Still, there’s a silver lining: even after the 13% correction, sold prices remain more than 50% higher than in 2019, before the pandemic-driven boom.
Market Snapshot – May 2025
- New Listings:
↓ 27% vs. April 2025
↓ 8.3% vs. May 2024 - Sold Homes:
↓ 9.1% vs. April 2025
↓ 8.3% vs. May 2024 - Average Sold Price per Sq. Ft.:
↓ 4.4% vs. April 2025
↓ 13.2% vs. May 2024 - Median Sold Price:
↓ 5.3% vs. April 2025
↓ 13% vs. May 2024 - Months of Inventory:
5.2 months
↑ 2% vs. April 2025
↑ 40.9% vs. May 2024
Where Do Prices Go from Here?
Much hinges on mortgage rates. Whether a buyer is financing or paying cash, the entire housing ecosystem is influenced by rate trends:
- Over 7%: Prices weaken
- Mid-6% range: Prices stabilize
- Around 6%: Prices begin to rise
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is due tomorrow. Temporary inflation pressures—potentially from tariffs—could push the 10-year Treasury yield and mortgage rates higher. If that happens, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower rates, choosing instead to maintain its current restrictive stance until the inflationary impact of tariffs is better understood.
The Labor Market Holds the Key
The real pivot will come from the job market. Rising unemployment and jobless claims are the pressure release the Fed may be waiting for. Last week, initial jobless claims hit an eight-month high, and the unemployment rate edged up slightly to 4.24%—the first sign of a weakening labor market. If this trend continues, the Fed may shift its stance, turn dovish, and begin reducing rates.
Have questions about buying or selling in this shifting market? Let’s talk strategy – now’s the time to get ahead of the curve.
