A recent review of home sales turns on its head the perception that the best time to sell is during the winter, so-called “in season”.  Although the number of homes for sale and new listings was down, the number of homes sold and homes under contract were way up.  In September 2014 homes for sale were down 9.3% compared to the same time last year.  New listings were down 5.3% compared to last year.  Nevertheless, closed sales in September were up 20.9% from last year.  Pending sales which represent homes placed under contract in September were up a whopping 32.3% from September 2013.  Homes were on the market for an average of only 78 days, selling 16.1% faster when compared to last September.  So what we have is a typical case of supply and demand.  There are simply not enough homes for sale to meet buyers’ demands.  Accordingly, when competitively priced, homes are quickly selling without regard to the “season”. In such an environment, it doesn’t make sense for a Seller to wait to list a home “in season”.  In season is another way of saying you will be competing with more properties.  Better to sell when you are one amongst a few, rather than one amongst many; particularly when the evidence is clear that homes are selling at an accelerated rate during the so-called “off season”.  The so-called “in season” is a relic of the past.  The Great Recession changed all of that.  It changed home buying patterns, including here in Venice, Florida.

The fact that we have high demand and low supply would suggest an environment for major price appreciation.  However, notwithstanding high demand and low supply, the pace of appreciation has slowed down from the collective 20% increase in 2012 and 2013.  In September the median sold price went up only 3% for all of Venice, compared to the same time last year.  That is modest and is consistent with the historical 100 year average. This continues to support what I have postulated in prior posts, that prices have stabilized, and will likely increase at modest levels, notwithstanding the low supply of homes and quickening pace of sales.  Note that since all real estate is local, there are communities, subdivisions and buildings within Venice which are selling at greater than a 3% appreciation rate, many of which I have sold.  A home’s distinguishing characteristics, how it shows, is photographed, marketed and negotiated can justify a higher list and sold price.  But you have to be careful.  It does require that showings, feedback and the competition be carefully monitored, and that timely adjustments be made in order to ensure that a property does not become stale or stigmatized.  If a home does not go under contract within 3 months, it is likely over-priced. Please note there are 3 elephants in the room, which could change everything, resulting in a depreciating marketplace: (i) interest rates, likely increasing in 2015; (ii) the jobless economic recovery; and (iii) world instability.

In the face of this data, if you are considering selling your home, it doesn’t make sense to sit on the sidelines any longer.  “In season”, “off season”, what we have been experiencing is a “selling season”.  It is a Seller’s Market, but it is not a run away market.  In the long run, that’s a good thing.