In December, single family and condominium home sales closed out the year consistent with 2019 trending sales.  As we ride into the new decade, 2020, I do not foresee any material GEO political/economic, national, regional or local indicators which will alter the current pace and scope of single family and condominium sales in Sarasota County.  The big story is that inventory is and will remain low.  Homeowners will stay in their homes longer, resulting in less new listings.  Buyers will continue to migrate to Florida from our feeder markets up north (Note: It is anticipated that Florida will add 2 Congressional Districts from the 2020 Census).  More buyers, combined with a smaller selection of homes and condos to choose from, low inflation and mortgage interest rates projected to go to further all-time lows, will result in prices increasing 4% – 6% in 2020.

2020 Projections Relative to Real Estate Values:

1. Recession Is Not Likely. The economic expansion is entering its 11^th  Since 1945, the US has entered a recession every 7 – 9 years.  Nevertheless, I do not see it occurring in 2020, and if it does, it will not be a recession, but a soft landing.  Whereas, manufacturing and industrial production have slowed, most other leading indicators are strong.  The first phase of a China Deal is at hand.  This will boost corporate confidence, and as it does, the equity markets will continue to reach new highs.  Consumer sentiment, which accounts for 2/3 of the economy, is overwhelmingly positive due to a healthy jobs market, wage increases, low inflation, low mortgage rates and low gas prices.  If there is a slowdown, real estate values will not depreciate. It is a hard asset, and there has been no material easing of lending standards which contributed to the 2008 meltdown.  Real estate will be perceived as a place for safety.

2. Interest Rates Will Go Down. The result is an affordability opportunity for Sellers and Buyers alike.  Further, if interest rates go down, and inflation increases, then real estate, the ultimate “hard asset” will appreciate.  Either way, a win-win.

Single Family Homes

• Homes for Sale – Falling: 2,455 (down 20.2% vs. last year; down 1.1% vs. last month).
• Sold Homes – Rising: 712 (up 40.7% vs. last year; up 19.5% vs. last month).
• Under Contract – Rising: 571 (up 26.6% vs. last year; up 10.8% vs. last month).
• Median Sold Price – Neutral: $295,000 (up 5.4% vs. last year; up 2.1% vs. last month).
• Average Sold Price – Neutral: $399,000 (down 2% vs. last year; down 1.7% vs. last month).
• Average Sold Price/Square Foot – Neutral: $204 (up 1.4% vs. last year; down 1.4% vs. last month).
• Average Days on Market – Falling: 68 days (down 6.8% vs. last year; down 5.6% vs. last month).
• Months of Inventory – Seller’s Market: 4 (down 44% vs. last year; down 19.2% vs. last month).

Condominiums

• Condos for Sale – Falling: 1,129 (down 17.4% vs. last year; down 3.9% vs. last month).
• Condos Sold – Rising: 280 (up 93.1% vs. last year; up 44.3% vs. last month).
• Under Contract – Rising: 218 (up 83.2% vs. last year; down 15.2% vs. last month).
• Median Sold Price – Appreciating: $307,000 (up 41.5% vs. last year; up 24.3% vs. last month).
• Average Sold Price – Appreciating: $484,000 (up 22.5% vs. last year; up 1.5% vs. last month).
• Average Sold Price/Square Foot – Appreciating: $330 (up 8.6% vs. last year; up 16.2% vs. last month).
• Average Days on Market – Falling: 84 days (up 7.7% vs. last year; down 13.4% vs. last month).
• Months of Inventory – Seller’s Market: 4 (down 57.3% vs. last year; down 34.7% vs. last month).